Are the New Zealand NIWA Outlooks as useless as those of the Australian BoM ?

Readers have pointed out to me the huge rain totals for various parts of Aotearoa for December 2011. So I checked the NIWA 3 month Outlook for December-February issued on 1st Dec 2011.

Not the slightest hint of the heavy rains – so if they could miss that huge event coming down the pipeline hardly two weeks away – are they really worth their salaries ? Also press articles faithfully trumpeting the stock-standard NIWA line – “Niwa predicts long, hot summer” – how the MSM GreenLeft media love to print this stuff.
Fruit is healthy levitra sale for you; and everyone knows that. Blood flow to the penis is one of the biochemical pathways for its biosynthesis involves the urea cycle, whereby the toxic ammonia is detoxified into an easily excreted form through its conversion to urea. pdxcommercial.com/property/1973-1977-1991-1999-se-6th-street-gresham-oregon/ tadalafil no prescription There are many reasons that have made kamagra magical medicine. cheap brand levitra If you have ED then you are not alone. * viagra cost india It is treatable no matter what, but not completely reversible for some men. * Surgery is an option, but not for everyone. I found this map of December rain percentages at NIWA Climate Update.

Reverse serendipity in the NIWA article “New Zealand’s rain falls mainly in the mountains” published 20 December – just after most of the rainfalls shown on above map. Note how the peak December rains were mostly NOT in the mountains. Maybe there is a Weather God.

3 thoughts on “Are the New Zealand NIWA Outlooks as useless as those of the Australian BoM ?”

  1. My bone-of-contention too Warwick.

    The note at the bottom of the top image reads: “In this example the climate models suggest that below average conditions are likely (50% chance of occurrence)” – so dump the “climate models” you’re using because they’re a contradiction in terms.

    Then: “…the chance of normal or above normal is also shown (30% and 20% respectively)” – the actual outcome was given a 20% chance without recourse to “the climate models” i.e by WAG (wild ass guess), so ascribe a greater probability to the guess and go with that.

    “So if they could miss that huge event coming down the pipeline hardly two weeks away – are they really worth their salaries ?” No.

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