Are the New Zealand NIWA Outlooks as useless as those of the Australian BoM ?

Readers have pointed out to me the huge rain totals for various parts of Aotearoa for December 2011. So I checked the NIWA 3 month Outlook for December-February issued on 1st Dec 2011.

Not the slightest hint of the heavy rains – so if they could miss that huge event coming down the pipeline hardly two weeks away – are they really worth their salaries ? Also press articles faithfully trumpeting the stock-standard NIWA line – “Niwa predicts long, hot summer” – how the MSM GreenLeft media love to print this stuff.
I found this map of December rain percentages at NIWA Climate Update.

Reverse serendipity in the NIWA article “New Zealand’s rain falls mainly in the mountains” published 20 December – just after most of the rainfalls shown on above map. Note how the peak December rains were mostly NOT in the mountains. Maybe there is a Weather God.

3 thoughts on “Are the New Zealand NIWA Outlooks as useless as those of the Australian BoM ?”

  1. My bone-of-contention too Warwick.

    The note at the bottom of the top image reads: “In this example the climate models suggest that below average conditions are likely (50% chance of occurrence)” – so dump the “climate models” you’re using because they’re a contradiction in terms.

    Then: “…the chance of normal or above normal is also shown (30% and 20% respectively)” – the actual outcome was given a 20% chance without recourse to “the climate models” i.e by WAG (wild ass guess), so ascribe a greater probability to the guess and go with that.

    “So if they could miss that huge event coming down the pipeline hardly two weeks away – are they really worth their salaries ?” No.

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